Compositional Time Series: An Application
dc.contributor.author
dc.contributor.editor
dc.date.accessioned
2008-05-13T07:26:35Z
dc.date.available
2008-05-13T07:26:35Z
dc.date.issued
2008-05-29
dc.identifier.citation
Bergman, J. 'Compositional Time Series: An Application' a CODAWORK’08. Girona: La Universitat, 2008 [consulta: 13 maig 2008]. Necessita Adobe Acrobat. Disponible a Internet a: http://dugi-doc.udg.edu//handle/10256/723
dc.identifier.uri
dc.description.abstract
The composition of the labour force is an important economic factor for a country.
Often the changes in proportions of different groups are of interest.
I this paper we study a monthly compositional time series from the Swedish Labour
Force Survey from 1994 to 2005. Three models are studied: the ILR-transformed series,
the ILR-transformation of the compositional differenced series of order 1, and the ILRtransformation
of the compositional differenced series of order 12. For each of the
three models a VAR-model is fitted based on the data 1994-2003. We predict the time
series 15 steps ahead and calculate 95 % prediction regions. The predictions of the
three models are compared with actual values using MAD and MSE and the prediction
regions are compared graphically in a ternary time series plot.
We conclude that the first, and simplest, model possesses the best predictive power of
the three models
dc.description.sponsorship
Geologische Vereinigung; Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya; International Association for Mathematical Geology; Càtedra Lluís Santaló d’Aplicacions de la Matemàtica; Generalitat de Catalunya, Departament d’Innovació, Universitats i Recerca; Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia; Ingenio 2010.
dc.format.mimetype
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
Universitat de Girona. Departament d’Informàtica i Matemàtica Aplicada
dc.rights
Tots els drets reservats
dc.subject
dc.title
Compositional Time Series: An Application
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
dc.rights.accessRights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess