Network-based assessment of multi-scale resilience in the water-energy-land-food nexus: a case study in the Colombian Caribbean

Abstract

Global change threatens socio-ecological systems, particularly in regions with rapid land use changes and competing demands for water, energy, and food. However, the impact of land use changes on the resilience of interconnected systems remains largely unexplored. To address this gap, this study advances the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus approach by integrating land as a central element, forming the Water-Energy-Land-Food (WELF) nexus. It introduces an analytical framework to quantify the effects of land use changes on nexus composition and resilience across spatial scales, from regional to local. The framework characterizes resilience as a macroscale property of the nexus using geospatial land use and land cover data and decomposes it into microscale components through a network approach, identifying how nexus elements and land use transfers among them influence resilience. The framework is applied to the Maria La Baja sub-watershed (2002–2018) in the Colombian Caribbean, during significant structural transformation. Results reveal scale-dependent variations in WELF nexus composition and resilience, with the Food element consistently enhancing resilience, while the contributions of Water and Energy vary by scale. Scenario analysis shows that a reduction in land use transfers consistently decreases resilience across scales. In contrast to literature, this study finds that increasing land use transfers does not always enhance resilience. While resilience theory can support balancing competing land demands and adapting socio-ecological systems to global change, this study emphasizes the need for careful characterization of nexus elements, interactions, and feedback loops, identifying a necessary condition for land use transfers interventions to enhance resilience effectively