Natural disasters over France a 35 years assessment

Abstract

Using an exhaustive administrative database, we assess the impact of extreme weather events over French cities between 1982 and 2017. We identify numerous non-catastrophic disasters, thereby improving coverage wrt. the existing literature. Counting residents of cities stricken by a disaster, we find that in the long run, there were 22 residents affected every month per thousand population. This risk factor has been falling by 5 fewer people with every passing decade. France has thus improved its preparedness to natural disasters even though the seaboard regions fare worse than the northern region, most likely because of heightened urban pressure in hazardous areas by the seaside. Tropical territories are more at risk than the temperate European mainland, from a different mix of events. The full economic cost of natural disasters is estimated at 22 per capita per year and represent a small fraction of property insurance premiums. Residents from safer areas currently subsidize those living in riskier areas. To be more effective, preventive investments should be directed towards the main cities