Bayesian and network models with covariate effects for predicting heating energy demand

Abstract

The spatial effect is an element presented in many geostatistical works and it should be incorporated into studies regarding the heating energy demand of residential building stocks. The most common approaches have been made by simple descriptive statistics or using analyses by Markov random fields. In this work, we propose two different methods. First, the Stochastic Partial Differential Equation with the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation to model the variable heating energy demand in Castellón de la Plana, Spain also considering covariates and the spatial effect. Second, simulated street networks for analysing data. We describe and take advantage of the Bayesian methodology in the modelling process in all the scenarios, including covariates and the possibility of creating a simulated street network with the data for the modelling issue. Our results show that the spatial location of the building is a crucial element to study the heating energy demand using both methodologies