Models matemàtics per a la predicció dels robatoris amb força a domicili a Catalunya

Boqué Busquet, Pere
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Predictive policing is a global strategic orientation of the police that emphasizes the anticipation of crimes to prevent them. Its development comes from various fields of knowledge, in which criminology has created a theoretical body on criminal patterns in space and time, mathematics and statistics have modelled these patterns and ICTs have made possible their implementation in police forces. The research remains open, accompanied by uncertainties about its modelling and application. This thesis reviews the scientific, theoretical and practical knowledge related to predictive policing and the possibilities of applying it in Catalonia to predict residential burglaries with forced entry, which had a significant increase between 2009 and 2015 and, since then, they have remained at high crime rates. The spatiotemporal pattern of repeated and near-repeated victimization has been analysed. It has been verified that the residential burglaries in Catalonia are temporarily distributed in non-random waves when analysing the series in large cells, of 5km on each side. On a small scale, in cells less than 1km2, this pattern is less detected. This has suggested that the pattern of near repeated victimization in Catalonia is manifested differently than is usual in other countries, where it has basically been detected on a micro scale and in urban environments. This difference is related to the heterogeneity of Catalan geography, especially with respect to urban and residential, so it has been proposed to expand the concept of repetition in geographical proximity, to repetition in different areas, also far away, but which have similarities from the point of view of criminal opportunity. Criminal groups would choose these areas in advance and victimize them for periods of several weeks, generating waves of burglaries through a proposed new spatiotemporal pattern: the "all-in-one." The viability of this new pattern to explain, predict and prevent burglaries at home in Catalonia has been verified. It generates networks of relatively similar scattered areas that tend to activate at the same time and have been called "burglaries constellations." It is suggested that in geographical environments similar to Catalonia, such as much of southern Europe, the spatiotemporal distribution of residential burglaries could also follow these same proposed patterns ​
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