Fenòmens meteorològics extrems a la Mediterrània Occidental en un context de canvi climàtic

Abstract

This work is a general revision of four scientific documents about climate change, and its aim is to find what extreme weather phenomena can show a worsening due to Climate Change in the west Mediterranean, especially in Catalonia. To do so, in addition to the bibliographic research, the behaviour of some extreme weather phenomena has been analysed from data extracted of AdapteCCa platform that have been realized by CORDEX project. From that data there have been done some trend charts, two representative concentration trajectories of the greenhouse gas emissions have been compared with each other (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and it has been analysed its statistic signification. There has also been analysed if there exist trend differences between the zones of the Pyrenees and Costa Brava. When all the variables have been analysed, it has been concluded that the projections that are summarized in the documents reviewed are confirmed with the climate models from the statistic projections. It is expected that temperatures will be higher, there will be more heat waves and droughts will be longer. However, it is going to rain nearly the same that it does now, but this will occur in shorter periods which will be more intense. It has also been found that extraordinary severe weather phenomena are very difficult to predict, as they have a very low temporal frequency, and this increases the difficulty to obtain historical precedents and to create future projections. In short, if greenhouse effect gases emissions are not cut down or, at least, reduced, if society doesn’t make a large-scale change and if sustainable economy based on renewable energies aren’t promoted, we are going to have a global climate, that in the west Mediterranean and in Catalonia, where a lot of extreme weather phenomena could increase due to climate change