Avaluació de la connectivitat fluvial a partir del balanç hídric i les projeccions climàtiques a la conca de l’Ebre

Abstract

Faced with the problem at an ecological scale of the availability of water resources and the effect of climate change on connectivity in temporary rivers, it is appropriate to create a methodology to assess the magnitude of the effects that can be derived from this reality. In this work, we elaborate a methodology that evaluates the relation to future climate projections and its effect on the water balance, how hydrographic connectivity in the temporary rivers and aquatic states will affect rivers in the future. These calculations are made on the Ebro basin, specifically to the sub-basins of the Segre and Cinca rivers where there are three differentiated climatic zones, which will suffer different pressures on their hydrological regime due to climate change. Based on the hydrographic data of CHE (Confederación Hidrográfica del Ebro) and the climate projections of AEMET (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología), the method of the Tercer Informe del Canvi Climàtic a Catalunya (TICCC) has been developed to determine the relationship between water resources and precipitation in the current period and in the future as well with projections up to 2100. With this relationship, extrapolated data of the flows available in the future depend on the expected changes in this relationship. The method has some of limitations, which are also evaluated and, therefore, wants to be the starting point to establish models of variation of the aquatic states in relation to the water balances and the climatic projections. Finally, this methodology and the corresponding calculations warn of the existing problems of lack of water resources and ecological connectivity and the management needs that are based on the future availability of water, preserving the aquatic ecosystems that depend on these water regimes